🔗 Share this article

Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.

That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."

New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.

Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"The Irish government must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has got something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."

Request for Wider Dialogue

Westminster must participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."