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Back in 2018, a mere a short phrase to energize a Labour conference and to show the party was falling out of love with its then leader. Although not precisely soaring oratory, the words met with rapturous applause as most of the hall stood for spontaneous acclamation.

As the commotion died down, Keir Starmer, stood at the podium, blinking in surprise. He was unaccustomed to his addresses producing such a reaction. All he had said was: "We are not excluding staying in the EU". But context is everything.

In that deeply polarized period of 2018, straying from his agreed text like this was inevitably viewed as issuing a challenge to Jeremy Corbyn, who was trying to prioritise leave supporters in working-class seats above the pro-European instincts within Labour. With that single address, this grey-suited opposition Brexit spokesman underwent a transformation – albeit temporarily – into a political gambler who would stand up for the party's base against a leader he later succeeded.

The Evolution of Stance & Closed Debates

Since then, the landscape has shifted, not least to Starmer himself. One of his first acts upon assuming leadership from Corbyn in 2020 was declaring the EU question was resolved by the 2019 national vote. And, at the last one, he consistently stressed unbreakable pledge promises that ruled out rejoining the EU, the single market or a customs union.

Like his predecessor, his strategy has been to pursue pro-Leave voters in target constituencies, despite polling evidence indicates a significant number have passed away or shifted opinion.

Pressure Building on the EU

However, the tables have turned and Starmer is now to be an embattled party leader. While EU relations may not be the central crisis in UK politics, a lid that has been kept tightly sealed since Brexit is starting to loosen once more.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have ramped up their language regarding the damage caused by Brexit has caused to the UK’s economy. This serves as an effective tool with which to beat the Reform UK leader, who seldom discusses his flagship policy was his primary goal and is still his sole political accomplishment.

And yet, the scale of the damage, which by some estimates has left Britain with an economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller compared to EU membership, towers over the minor adjustments so far offered by ministers. Starmer’s so-called relationship reset negotiated with the EU last summer offers economic benefits measured in fractions of a percent.

Cabinet Divergence & Ambitious Proposals

Rachel Reeves is among those attempting to bypass long-standing Home Office resistance to a broader scheme designed to boost growth youth mobility scheme allowing young people can travel between Britain and Europe for work or study.

The deputy prime minister has pondered publicly about the “self-evident” benefits of joining an EU customs pact, while a dozen Labour MPs, such as the head of the powerful finance committee, last week voted for a Liberal Democrat motion on customs union membership.

While Nick Thomas-Symonds, who oversees EU policy, who is now attending all cabinet sessions, insists the firm boundaries remain unchanged, there exist avenues these could be bypassed. One idea involves announce the start of talks immediately on a much bolder deal, for inclusion in the following election platform, with implementation only if Labour won a fresh mandate.

Starmer's Fundamental Doubts

Yet, Starmer has most recently damping it all down on the idea cautioning that a return to an EU customs arrangement could undermine the commercial agreements with America, which he regards as key accomplishments of his government.

Reportedly that Starmer's doubts go still deeper, and is rooted in three further factors.

1. First, he believes any customs union agreement is now much harder as ministers are actively diverging from European rules across a range of sectors, like environmental standards.
2. Second, the prohibitive cost set for the UK for entry into a European defense initiative and the subsequent collapse in talks has convinced UK negotiators that European nations are less interested in cutting special deals to the UK than in proving that Brexit does not work.
3. Thirdly, America's latest security doctrine, praised by Moscow, is viewed by key advisors in Number 10 as grounds for Britain to maintain distance from the EU.

A Bizarre Strategy & Geopolitical Considerations

This strange and concerning American strategy paper asserts Europe is threatened by “civilizational erasure” due to immigration. It includes a single mention of the UK, placed beside a suggestion that Donald Trump’s administration will intervene in British politics to foster the rise of nationalist movements.

However, instead of concluding that this renders the US an unreliable partner, ministers is worried that aligning closer with Europe would destabilise geopolitics further by risking precarious American backing for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Succession Chatter & The Ghost of 2018

All of which brings us back to 2018. Starmer has always said his speech was not an attempt to become leader but simply an attempt to preserve the “option” of staying in the EU in a future vote. Indeed, in those days, he still supported a tailored trade agreement similar to the one he now appears to be opposing.

Observers within the Prime Minister's office note that the Health Secretary, widely considered would be a candidate in any leadership election, is among a group of senior ministers signaling they want to go further on Europe.

Staff for the Deputy Prime Minister, another probable runner in a future race to replace Starmer, maintain she won’t discuss her position regarding a customs pact because it would only “fuel unnecessary gossip”.

The Obvious Risk & A Wise Reminder

The danger is obvious. Should the PM reject significant moves towards a close relationship, he allows rivals to claim the territory where the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs, members and voters are to be found.

It would be prudent for Starmer to remember the effect that a short phrase had on his career seven years ago. There are options for a major proposal on Europe that the prime minister should not “rule out”; he should prise them open personally, before someone else makes them his – or her – own.