🔗 Share this article

A mere two months in the past when Morgan Rogers stood on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused as the Villa manager berated him over missing a through-ball. During that period, as the club failed to win in six, doubts remained if his displays were a symptom or a cause of the side's more general malaise.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

In the latest match, in contrast, the sideline response was entirely far more favourable. As Rogers swept in his second to reinstate the lead for Villa, Emery discarded his winter coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The team continued to a tenth straight victory , having failed to win their initial half-dozen matches, find themselves just three points off table-toppers Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Genuine Challengers?

It remains a rather hard proposition to answer. History, the traditional standing of the club, argues against it. Furthermore, their performances haven't been completely commanding during this run, while the victories have accumulated.

As per the data, twice all season have Villa posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a club that have strung together a ten-match winning streak, Villa look curiously susceptible – but at the moment the margins are going in their favour.

The Reliant Strategy

The prevailing tactic seems to be to exchange chances with the opposition and then rely on Rogers to rescue them with two clinical strikes. This was the case against Leeds, it happened in London, and again against United.

The initial strike came from an exquisite effort, curled just inside the goal frame from a wide position. The follow-up goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of the opener capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

How Long Can This Continue?

Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opponents registered more efforts and more efforts on goal. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all except one of those matches.

A reversion to average could be the most significant challenge the club will encounter over the coming weeks. The forward, almost certainly, cannot maintain blasting his shots past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.

A Case for Belief

Maybe there exists an alternative path whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures may yet return to peak condition.

• The main striker might resume finding the net regularly.
• The winger could transform into the performer he was at Borussia Dortmund.
• The defensive duo are set to return from injury, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.

Maybe within that lies the potential of a genuine bid, but they surely can continue to depend solely on one man.

Enjoying the Ride

Yet, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And certainly back in October, nobody thought the midfielder by the end of the year would be leading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a crucial England player.

This remarkable period must be cherished exactly since it feels so unlikely. As the hero positioned himself before the North End at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he appeared to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These spells are rare in football and should be relished.